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Prabowo Oke, Anies Oke Dan Gatot Juga Oke: Tanggapan Untuk Denny JA

Prabowo Oke, Anies Oke Dan Gatot Juga Oke: Tanggapan Untuk Denny JA
Prabowo Oke, Anies Oke Dan Gatot Juga Oke: Tanggapan Untuk Denny JA

Berita Islam 24H - DENNY JA (DJA) imam kaum surveyor dan konsultan politik Indonesia merilis pikirannya dengan judul "Renungan Singkat Indonesia (2): Jika Gatot Nurmantyo dicalonkan oleh Prabowo dan SBY", beberapa hari lalu.

Renungan ini mengintisarikan empat hal sebagai berikut: 1) Jika Gatot Nurmantyo (GN) face to face (berhadapan langsung) terhadap Jokowi, maka pertarungan sangat sengit. Meski belum tentu Jokowi bisa dikalahkan. 2) Meski survei survei lembaga konsultan memperlihatkan ketimpangan popularitas Jokowi vs Gatot, namun DJA yakin, melalaui pengalaman, waktu H-11 bulan masih panjang untuk mengalahkan petahana.

3) Peluang GN ini terjadi dengan asumsi adanya polarisasi 4 tokoh (Don) dalam dua kutub. Kutub pertama Jokowi bersama Mega, mendukung Jokowi; kutub kedua, SBY bersama Prabowo mendukung GN. 4) Meski Jokowi masih unggul dalam aneka survei, berbagai isu kinerja Jokowi yang buruk kelak akan melorotkan popularitas dia. Isu buruk itu a.l. kondisi ekonomi buruk, pengangguran, tenaga kerja asing, dan Jokowi tidak bersahabat dengan Islam.

Menanggapi pikiran DJA ini memerlukan pertimbangan dua hal. Pertama, DJA sebagai imamnya kaum survey mempunyai feeling yang tajam tentang menang kalahnya seorang incumbent (petahana). Kedua, munculnya nama GN saat ini membuat pro-kontra kaum oposisi.

Kaum oposisi ada yang semakin yakin dengan pencapresan Prabowo baru-baru ini. Kelompok ini seringkali mencurigai opini seperti pemunculan nama GN dan atau Anies, dianggap sebagai pelemahan atau bahkan pemecah belah kaum oposisi. Sebaliknya, sebagaian kaum oposisi masih melihat bahwa Prabowo belumlah calon final. Karena kaum oposisi baru melihat kelompok Gerindra sajalah yang merasa pencalonan Prabowo bersifat final. Padahal Gerindra harus mempertimbangkan partai partai dan kelompok strategis lainnya.

Gatot dan Kekalahan Jokowi

Kekalahan Jokowi atau potensi kekalahannya dalam konstruksi berpikir DJA hanya terjadi jika situasi sosial yang buruk dalam rezim Jokowi bertemu dengan sosok alrernatif yang mampu memberi harapan, dan itu adalah GN.

Penjelasan DJA soal asumsi polarisasi empat tokoh yang seimbang, Jokowi/Mega vs. SBY/Prabowo dengan GN sebagai saingan Jokowi, secara sepihak telah menempatkan GN sebagai sosok alrernatif yang mampu mewakili aspirasi kaum oposisi untuk ganti presiden yang semakin besar.

Survei yang menunjukkan peningkatan signifikan elaktibikitas GN barulah sebuah survei, yakni Median, yang menempatkan GN sebesar 7 persen. Dari sebelumnya hanya seputar 3 persen.

Tanpa penjelasan kuantitatif dan kualitatif, DJA terlihat masih subjektif soal GN ini.

Lalu bagaimana melihat feeling DJA dalam renungan singkatnya ini?

Pertama, pembagian analisa harus diperjelas dulu pada dua hal. yakni, 1) kondisi objektif. DJA memperlihatkan bahwa berbagai isu negatif menerpa Jokowi, baik itu kinerja yang buruk maupun emosi masyarakat Islam yang anti Jokowi. Seberapa jauh kondisi objektif ini mengalahkan Jokowi? Jika kondisi ini begitu dominan, maka faktor sosok untuk bertarung dengan Jokowi hanyalah bersifat sekunder saja.

Selain itu, faktor elite, atau Don, menjadi tidak signifikan. Artinya, siapapun yang punya tiket melawan Jokowi akan memenangkan pertarungan, baik itu Prabowo maupun GN.

2) Namun, jika kondisi negatif bagi kemenangan Jokowi tidak dominan, maka sosok dan front elit menjadi faktor signifikan. Dan ini perlu analisa lebih lanjut, siapakah sosok yang harus dimajukan dan bagaimana formasi elit?

Kedua, renungan DJA jilid dua ini perlu digabungkan dengan renungannya jilid pertama. Sebelumnya DJA merenung bahwa Jokowi hanya akan kuat jika didukung oleh Golkar. Jokowi tanpa Golkar, dalam bayang-bayang PDIP saja, hanyalah Jokowi lemah. Simbol Jokowi lemah akan dimaknai negatif untuk menyelamatkan Indonesia ke depan. Karena dia hanya boneka partai.

Dengan dua renungan, kita melihat konstruksi berpikir DJA bahwa pilpres ke depan akan kompetitif dan kedua pihak membutuhkan terpenuhinya dua syarat, yakni Jokowi membutuhkan partai Golkar dan Megawati, sedangkan oposisi membutuhkan SBY/Prabowo dan GN.

Kembali kita melihat renungan DJA masih menyisakan pertanyaan, apakah renungan ini memiliki basis rasional yang kuat atau ini hanya subjektifitas DJA saja?

Front Rakyat dan Presiden Baru

Renungan dan feeling DJA meskipun terkesan subjektif, tetap perlu diapresiasi karena DJA adalah pelaku politik dalam pengertian mempunyai pengalaman kerja kerja politik memenangkan capres maupun cagub/cabup/cawalkot. Selain itu tentu saja karena DJA adalah doktor di bidang politik, sehingga sebuah feeling dan renungan bukan sekedar renungan. Diantara subjektifitas DJA, terdapat potensi renungan yang menarik, yakni Jokowi bisa dikalahkan.

Fakta-fakta politik yang secara kualitatif kita visa amati adalah sebagai berikut:

1) situasi oposisi yang semakin membesar terhadap Jokowi terjadi semakin radikal. Gerakan kaum buruh yang anti tenaga kerja cina (TKA Cina), gerakan Islam 212 dan berbagai gerakan nitizen, semakin mengkrucut dalam tema #2019 Ganti Presiden. 2) Oposisi sudah memiliki Capres Prabowo dengan dua stock capres lainnya, GN dan Anies, yang diyakini tidak memerlukan opini-opini kelompok lembaga survei. Kegagalan lembaga-lembaga survei dalam mengkampanyekan Ahok pada pilkada Jakarta lalu membuat kepercayaan publik pada lembaga survei pro Jokowi mendekati titik nol.

3. Elit oposisi sudah sangat matang dalam menimbang dan bermusyawarah dalam menentukan capres dan cawapres serta konsesi politik kekuasan ke depan.

Hal ini terjadi karena peristiwa ketegangan politik rezim penguasa vs oposisi sudah berlangsung lama dan menegangkan. Dalam konteks ini kehadiran SBY, yang dalam analisa DJA sebagai Don, bisa menjadi tidak penting.

4. Kepanikan justru terjadi pada rejim Jokowi sendiri, karena mempertahankan kekuasaan lebih berat dari mencapai kekuasaan. Jokowi harus menentukan cawapresnya dengan begitu banyak calon. Dan tentu harus lebih banyak uang. Hal ini akan mengahasilkan pertengkaran di antara mereka kelak.

Kepanikan juga diperlihatkan dengan agenda rezim yang berusaha mensetting pertarungan Jokowi hanya terhadap Pravowo saja atau kota kosong, dengan asumsi gampang menang. Padahal sejatinya situasi objektif lah yang akan memenangkan oposisi, baik Prabowo, atau GN ataupun Anies yang mewakili oposisi.

Dengan demikian kita akhirnya melihat, bisa jadi pandangan DJA yang bersifat subjektif pada pemunculan nama GN sebenarnya bersifat semena-mena, yang juga bisa ditaruhkan nama lain, yakni Anies atau bahkan Prabowo sendiri.

Jadi situasi objektif saat ini kaum oposisi harus bersatu, karena situasi objektif itu artinya situasi di rakyat. Siapapun Capresnya, yang sesuai hati nurani rakyat oposisi, Prabowo, Gatot or Anies, semua ok. Yang penting situasi objektif ini dipelihara oleh sebuah front rakyat sampai pilpres 2019.

OLEH: DR. SYAHGANDA NAINGGOLAN
Penulis adalah Direktur Sabang Merauke Circle 
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